How many times have you seen a horse finish strongly to win, only to plod home as an unplaced favourite at its next run? What about the front-runner that defies all challengers in the straight one start, but is then beaten on the turn at its next? These sudden form reversals may seem like just another element in the great uncertainty of racing, but more often than not they can be explained by one very important factor, the influence of early pace.

Early pace refers to the speed each race settles into after the field has accelerated from the barriers and jockeys have found their position in running. What makes early pace so important is that it varies from race to race, depending on the preferred running style of each horse, their barrier draw and the riding tactics of jockeys.

In some races there may only be one preferred leader that is able to take up its position with little effort. This allows the jockey to create a slow early pace and conserve energy for the sprint home. In other races there may be a number of front running types and jockeys have to keep their mounts going at a good pace to maintain position. This creates a much more genuine and sometimes fast early pace.

Different levels of early pace will suit some horses more than others. Consider the following example of three races run over 1200m. All races finish with the same final time of 70 seconds, but each has a different level of early pace.