There were a number of up and coming 3 year olds engaged in the race, which always adds an extra variable to the assessment. Talented horses are  open to significantly improving their Speed-Form ratings from one start to the next and predicting such improvement is difficult.

However it was clear to me from the beginning that Gilded Youth had an outstanding chance of winning the race. The big and strong Gilded Time colt was coming off a very strong run when beaten just 0.1 lengths behind the smart Spurcent at Rosehill on 2nd August.

The time in the race was a very slick 69.86 seconds. Allowing for the effect of early pace, Speed-Form ratings showed this race to be 5 lengths faster than the fillies race over the same distance won by Jewel Peak and 2 lengths faster than the open age R1+ race won by Damigos. After reviewing the Speed-Form ratings following that meeting it was obvious that this was a very strong form race and horses close to the winner could be followed with confidence.

Superior Sateen was lining up in the first race on Saturday after finishing only 2.1 lengths behind Spurcent and racing like he would appreciate the 1500m trip. Coming from such a strong speed race his win was easy money at a very respectable price of $5. Terracotta Bay who finished 2.9 lengths behind Spurcent also ran a close 3rd in the race. The form had clearly been confirmed.

Superior Sateen was a nice result, but the real money was still to be made in race 3 with Gilded Youth.

From the moment the markets opened it was clear that there was an opportunity to make a big profit on the race. Despite his outstanding performance behind Spurcent last start, Gilded Youth was better than $10 in betting. Spinning Boy, who had finished about a length behind Gilded Youth was also at a similar price. The short priced favourite in the race was Confectioner, a first time visitor from Melbourne, followed by Niagara Falls, a first time visitor from Melbourne and Adelaide.

Despite being last start winners, both horses had only beaten moderate opposition and only run reasonable times. Both horses were also racing the Sydney way of going for the first time which always adds an additional performance risk.

The best Speed-Form figures for each of the main runners in the race were:

Confectioner was less than 2/1 in betting and clearly a case where the hype had exceeded his exposed speed ability.

Gilded Youth and Spinning Boy on the other hand were both massive value and it was easy to enter the race with confidence, backing Gilded Youth to win and saving on Spinning Boy.

Gilded Youth won the race comfortably at $15.70 on the NSW tote, providing a massive windfall to go with the easy money made on Superior Sateen earlier in the day. 

This was not a particularly difficult race to make money on. Gilded Youth had clearly shown superior speed ability to other runners in the field, yet the market overlooked this fact and had him at a ridiculous price.

Fast horses win races and it's only through speed analysis that hidden gems like Gilded Youth can  regularly be found.

Good punting!