Race pace has a
major influence on the ability of a horse to carry weight over
a given distance. A horse will be at a significant
disadvantage if asked to carry more weight over more distance
in a race with faster early pace.
Never discount the clear victories one horse has had over
another in their previous runs.
Unless there were "significant" excuses for the defeat and /
or you expect the horse to notably improve under the new race
conditions, it is most likely to be defeated again.
Don't be deceived
by the "one-off" rating in a horse's previous form that indicates
it should easily beat today's opposition. Unless the horse in
young, on the way up and has already demonstrated some special
talent the rating is likely to be an aberration. Your bankroll
will be in much better shape if you base your assessment on
ratings more consistent with the horse's overall record.
Knowledge of a horse’s ability or potential to compete at
different class levels is the basis of effective form analysis.
Always start your analysis of each horse with an assessment of
its class relative to the race under consideration.
If you aspire to make consistent profits from racing a
detailed knowledge of individual horses is essential. Spend time
noting the characteristics and ability of individual horses in
different conditions and you will be well rewarded.
Pay particular attention to how a horse finished off the final
50m of its race. A simple note of whether the horse was making,
losing or holding ground during this period can prove vital when
assessing its form in a future race.
The judgement and skill of a jockey is frequently the
difference between winning and losing a race, especially on
get-back runners, biased tracks and horses drawn wide. Steer clear
of poor and inexperienced jockeys on horses facing these
difficult conditions and you will avoid many losing bets.
Pay particular attention to young, lightly raced horses
that win with something in reserve. Quiet often they can
continue to step up in class and string together a few more wins
before they reach their class and weight peak.
Proven ability in wet going is vital. Horses that have yet
to start on slow or heavy tracks represent high risk, regardless
of how good other aspects of their form might be. Your bankroll
will be much better off if you avoid them as betting
propositions.
Making an income from racing is about playing the odds and
taking advantage of profitable opportunities when they arise.
Have the discipline to ignore favoured runners that represent
poor value and courage to support others that represent higher
value and you will drastically improve your bottom line.
When examining the potential disadvantages a horse must
overcome to win a race, always consider its class relative to
the class of opposition. Horses that have a class edge will
often overcome difficulties to still go on and win. However
horses that are racing at their class peak will most often only
win when everything is in their favour.
